Monday, November 04, 2024
Who will win the 2024 Election? Our election forecast...
Women, Latinx and people of color, along with disaffected Republicans and an energized Democrat electorate will drive Kamala Harris to a biggr victory than the polls are indicating. North Carolina, and apparently Iowa, are even in play, and Florida and Texas will be closer than in recent years. Trump may get Arizona, and possibly Georgia and Nevada, but I don't believe he will get all three, and Harris will get the rest, plus probably at elast one of these three. Pennsylvania will be sealed as Democrat by the Puerto Rican community. It will be a complete repudiation of Trump, the Pandemic-botching, insurrectionist, who stole Top-Secret documents, was found guilty by juries of sexual assault and financial fraud.
Because of much of this, Congress will most likely flip to Democratic control. The Senate is murkier because some of these voter, notably disaffected Republicans, will still vote for the GOP down-ticket, but I believe the Senate will remain in Democrat control.
Women will punish the Republicans once again, for everything from their overt misogyny to their stacking the Supreme Court and overturning the law of the land, Roe v. Wade, after half-a-century. The Latinx community will punish the GOP for its overt racism, as will our Black community.
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