Who will win the 2024 Election? Our election forecast...

Women, Latinx and people of color, along with disaffected Republicans and an energized Democrat electorate will drive Kamala Harris to a biggr victory than the polls are indicating. North Carolina, and apparently Iowa, are even in play, and Florida and Texas will be closer than in recent years. Trump may get Arizona, and possibly Georgia and Nevada, but I don't believe he will get all three, and Harris will get the rest, plus probably at elast one of these three. Pennsylvania will be sealed as Democrat by the Puerto Rican community. It will be a complete repudiation of Trump, the Pandemic-botching, insurrectionist, who stole Top-Secret documents, was found guilty by juries of sexual assault and financial fraud. Because of much of this, Congress will most likely flip to Democratic control. The Senate is murkier because some of these voter, notably disaffected Republicans, will still vote for the GOP down-ticket, but I believe the Senate will remain in Democrat control. Women will punish the Republicans once again, for everything from their overt misogyny to their stacking the Supreme Court and overturning the law of the land, Roe v. Wade, after half-a-century. The Latinx community will punish the GOP for its overt racism, as will our Black community.

Next in the large and growing series: Why everything bad can be blamed on Republicans. Let’s look at what is going on in Gaza and the MidEast.

We have Presidential election coming up, so it is important to visit the next in the large and growing series: Why everything bad can be blamed on Republicans. Let’s look at what is going on in Gaza and the MidEast. What Israel is doing to civilian Palestinians is unconscionable. Of course we understand why they are fighting in Gaza, as they suffered a brutal terrorist attack that killed over a thousand Israelis. Nevertheless, they need to show restraint for the civilian population, most of which have been forced on the run because of this fight. This is not a discussion about how they got to this point, or who is right or justified. This is about, how the Biden administration is, rightfully and morally correct, to be demanding Israel curtail the chaos that is leading to many thousands of Palestinian civilian deaths. And about why Israel thinks it’s okay to ignore these calls for restraint. The USA has a credibility problem. Back in 2001, Osama bin Laden, leading Al Qaeda, committed a horrific terrorist act against United States killing over a thousand Americans. These terrorists were based in Afghanistan and so the U.S. invaded Afghanistan. Makes sense. But then the Republican W. Bush administration in charge at the time, invaded Iraq. Iraq is a country that had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11. We knew this then and we know it now. That GOP administration manufactured false evidence to make it look like Iraq was a danger to the world. They did this, of course, because there was absolutely no reason for the U.S. to be in Iraq, because they had nothing to do with 9/11. During the U.S. invasion of that country, it is estimated that over 100,000 Iraqi civilians were killed. See the problem? We created a precedent where when you are assaulted by a horrific terrorist act, like we were in 9/11 and like Israel was by Hamas, that you can do whatever you want, and kill as many civilians as get in the way of what you want to do. There is one big difference between the two situations. Israel is fighting in the place where the terrorists are. The USA had no reason to be in Iraq. In addition, because it seems, Republican failures know no bounds, the precedent that was created, is just the latest disaster in a long line of problems related to these events. You may remember, Iraq was at war with Iran, and had kept Iran in check for over a decade. By the USA invading, taking out Iraq’s leader and debilitating its military, the U.S. created a resurgent Iran who has been a problem ever since, committing acts of terrorism, supporting Hezbollah and moving towards becoming a terrorist nuclear state. Once again proving, that when something bad is happening, the first place you should look for fault, is the Republican party of the USA. Who as you remember, under Trump, then pulled us out of the agreement that was keeping Iran from becoming a nuclear state. Of course, this is only one of a long series…from the MidEast, to Climate Change, to anti-education policies, racism sexism, antisemitism, an underestimated pandemic, huge deficits, tax policies that favor the wealthy, underperforming economies and children being shot in the schools as often as states have state fairs---there is almost no problem you can’t trace back to Republican policies, incompetence and failures.

How the Media Created Trump 2024.

How does a traitor, a criminal, a serial-liar who steals national secrets and denies election results that are unfavorable to him, become a presidential contender again? The media helped create the threat of a 2024 Trump resurgence. For one thing, they should have ignored him and allowed the courts to do their job. A traitor, fraudster, criminal would not be in the media cycle for months and months. Sure, it’s big news at each indictment, like it was for Harvey Weinstein, but then the press move on. Not so, with Trump. Despite the fact that everything he says has been shown to be lies, and he still lies about the 2020 election, they constantly bombarded us with him and his lying the band of cohorts, constantly saying that the election was stolen. Say something enough, and some people will believe you. More egregious, and this is how the press has been working for most of the 21st century, is to say things that will get more views, no matter how they skew the facts. Not lies, but you can make the facts look more or less supportive of a point-of-view if you present them in a certain way.. For example: They wrote about inflation constantly, and before it even hurt Biden, they talked about how it would surely hurt Biden. What you didn’t hear, all of this inflation was predicted because the world collapsed during the pandemic. Moreso because it was so poorly handled by Republicans but other nations did a poor job too, just not as bad as us. And as the world opened up, economists knew this was going to happen, because we already had terrible shortages and rising prices for some staples while still in the midst of lockdowns. Republicans don’t seem to remember that toilet paper was unavailable and going for $20 a 4 pack on ebay! That was before things even opened up. More egregious though, then even the media not reporting where the inflation came from, was not reporting that Biden’s economic agenda kept our inflation lower than just about every other developed nation in the world! He kept it lower, and brought it down quicker, than we have seen anywhere else! He did this while fostering an economy that has been growing briskly, employing everyone who wants a job and with rising salaries too. He did this while fulfilling the needs of the country that Republicans lied about or ignored throughout their previous presidencies, including Trump’s. For instance, finally investing in and rebuilding our infrastructure, invigorating the manufacturing sector and creating factory jobs, and improving technological research so that we stopped falling behind China. The United States had not moved ahead in any of these ways in decades, because Republican presidents ignored these pressing issues, allowed our country to fall behind our rivals and adversaries, and when they weren’t in the presidency, they used Congress to obstruct any gains Democratic presidents attempted to make. It was only Democratic presidents with a Democratic Congress, that have made any improvements. Obama managed to finally improve healthcare. Not completely and not as well as we all hoped, but the first meaningful improvements in half a century. Biden took a crumbling infrastructure, a shrinking technological lead and a bleak future dependent on fossil fuels, and improved our country! By the way, even if fossil fuels weren’t polluting and climate changing, they are LIMITED and they are controlled by ADVERSARIAL nations. Some of our electorate is so ignorant, so trained by Republicans to deny climate change, that they have forgotten that all our fossil fuel resources are finite, caused air and water pollution long before we talked about climate change, and the majority of those fuels are not controlled by our country, anyway. To not pursue clean, sustainable energy is a ridiculous, antiquated strategy Republican politicians hold onto because they are all too ignorant and/or too old to care about the future. HOWEVER, why their voters don’t care about the world that their children and grandchildren will inherit, is beyond me. Are they that ignorant, or is it such selfishness that they just don’t care about their future generations?

What the 2021 Election Really Means...

Ignore many of the pundits. This election wasn't about the Democrats agenda being too liberal or about the nation's mood. Two things are going on here. The first, the nation is watching Democrats squabble rather than pass legislation and are wondering if Democrats can get things done. Biden's agenda polls well. He was voted in based on that agenda. Democrats need to pass stuff, not argue about it. Manchin and Sinema have to stop worrying so much about the cost of things and worry about the cost to our nation instead. Republicans passed crap that drove the deficit up $2 trillion during good economic times. If Republicans were willing to blow the budget just to enrich themselves, the Democrats have to worry about their own constituents and this country, more than they have to worry about the cost right now. Besides, we know that Manchin is just worried about his own self-interest in his family owned coal mines. For him at least, this isn't about anything but himself. The other issue, unfortunately, is more insidious. It’s about an electorate that is kept ignorant by fake news sites online and fake news streaming from Fox and similar broadcasters. It is amazing that Republicans can get any votes at all, much less win elections, when all they have done since the year 2000 is lied to the people, involve them in wars and then failed those wars, consistently driven up the deficit by trillions, allowed a virus that was already going to be rough, to become an uncontrolled disaster, and then tried to take over the country in a violent insurrection. That these failures, these self-dealing, treasonous, liars, can get any votes at all, shows how their gerrymandering combined with the lies streaming from fake news, has made being reasonable and patriotic Americans into a dying art form.

As you get ready to go to the polls, remember to stay safe!

Also remember: Joe Biden was part of the administration that: · Ended the Great Recession · Killed Osama bin Laden · Ended pre-existing condition clauses and brought affordable healthcare to more than 20 million Americans. · Created more jobs in the last 3 years of their administration than Trump did in the first 3 years of his. Trump’s administration: · Ignored Coronavirus and allowed unprecedented numbers of Americans to die from Covid-19 · Brought us the Even Greater Recession · Legitimized North Korea and got nothing in return and then Empowered Iran’s Nuclear Arms Buildup · Is in court trying to end protections for preexisting conditions and to take away affordable healthcare from 20 million Americans. · Lost more jobs in the last year of his administration than were created the first 3 years.

Trump’s FAKE economy.

As you get ready to vote, it’s reasonable to look at the facts about Trump’s legacy. And foremost, Republicans want you to believe he had, until Coronavirus, an economic record to brag about. That may not be so true. And given his horrendous response to Covid-19, it’s fair to include that disaster in his record as well. But first, let’s consider his results for the Pre-Coronavirus years. Even pre-pandemic, the only thing extraordinary about what Trump accomplished is the misleading rhetoric from Trump and Republicans to convince you he accomplished anything special. Let’s look and see why that’s true. Trump inherited a growing economy in recovery. But, his supporters argue, he took a tepid recovery and gave it gas. Maybe, but how much gas? Not much, it turns out. In the last 3 years of the Obama administration more jobs were created than in the first 3 years under Trump. If you factor in the pandemic, which is fair since Obama dealt with Flu pandemics and Ebola---he just handled them better---there would not even be a comparison to make! BUT, we will leave out 2020---for now. Economic growth? Obama averaged 2.3 %, Trump 2.5 %. Obama promised nothing but to turn the country around---and he did. Trump promised 4% growth and missed BIGLY! Now, before Covid, Trump had an unemployment rate of 3.5%. Amazing you say! Well, when he took over form Obama the unemployment rate was 4.7%. Down another 1.2---not so amazing, after all, at least not compared to Obama/Biden. Obama/Biden took over a rate that was still going up because of the Great Recession and would hit 10% soon after Obama came into office. He brought it down to 4.7%---now that’s amazing! Stock and income growth, similar under both presidents. I say similar because they actually are better under Obama, but he did what Republicans never do---got us out of recession, not into one! But that tends to give your numbers a boost because they are coming from a downturn. We are seeing that now because Trump was crowing about 2020’s 3rd quarter growth, but it was only so high because of the great Trump Virus Contraction and Recession of the second and third quarters. Which he is now extending thanks to his complete inability to deal with the ongoing crisis. But here is why Trump’s economy is really FAKE NEWS. Because to get what little he got---he piled on the debt, another $2 trillion! And what did we get for that $2 trillion? Did Trump fix our roads and bridges as he promised? NO. A new, better, cheaper health care plan, that Trump promised? NO. A wall funded by Mexico? NO. Funded by us? YES, but only a little piece because we weren’t supposed to pay for it and don’t have the money for it---in fact he stole what we’ve paid so far form our military budget. We got nothing that Trump promised. But what we did get for the $2 trillion---is our rich got richer, our corporations paid little taxes and blew through all the excess gains by raising their stock prices, lining their pockets and when the pandemic hit---they were broke, unprepared, with nothing saved for a tough time and then they---begged for government socialist handouts! And drove up the deficit even more! That’s why Trump’s economy is all FAKE NEWS. He didn’t do any better than anyone else. He started with a head start form Obama/Biden that most administrations never have the luxury of starting from. Certainly, Obama/Biden didn’t---they started with the previous Republican administration’s Great Recession. Trump didn’t deliver any of the desperately needed infrastructure improvements, he didn’t deliver a better, cheaper health plan, or ANY health plan and yet he took Obamacare to court and is trying to end its coverage and its protections! THINK ABOUT THAT. He didn’t even deliver on his global promises. While the results of his trade deals are still on hold because of the pandemic, it is worth noting that neither Trump nor his supporters seem to understand how tariffs work? China doesn’t pay the tariffs. Tariffs are a tax on imported products. They get paid by U.S companies that import the items when they enter the U.S.. often, these companies then pass the costs of tariffs on to customers----us---by way of higher prices. Or they don’t—and they eat the costs and have lower profits. But CHINA MOST CERTAINLY IS NOT PAYING THE TARIFFS! However you look at it, the Trump economy pre-Covid was a very, very expensive, very, very mediocre economy. Now, we can factor in 2020. The United States has the worst response to the pandemic of any leading nation---or just about any nation—period. Worse death rate, worse spread, longest downturn, hardest hit economy. That’s on the Trump administration and it’s ineffective first response (downplay the virus and ignore it) followed by its awful continued response (continue to let people spread the disease, and tell everyone how great we are doing while our infection rate and death rate is a modern health catastrophe). Think about all of this---the facts---the truth---as you get ready to safely #Vote2020. We can turn this around. We can fix this. There is a reason Joe Biden and Democrat Senate candidates are all leading by huge numbers in the polls. Because the American voters know that our lives and our country’s future, depends on this election. #Vote2020

The Politicization of the Supreme Court is a Mistake and History Will Not Be Kind.

Up until relatively recently The Supreme Court has been handled in a reasonable way. The court worked and remained in balance. That changed when Republicans decided to break our constitution and throw it in the trash. I am of course speaking too their nonsense rationale for not holding hearings and seeding Obama's appointee, Maryland, in the last year of his presidency. There is nothing in the constitution to back up they are refusing to hold hearings. The constitution explicitly states that the president appoints and the Senate hold hearings and seat. Mitch McConnell and his Republican gang, hewing closely To the methods of Vladimir Putin the thug who helped elect Donald Trump, The GOP abandoned patriotism and the constitution Of course that wasn't McConnell’s only shredding of the constitution. As Donald Trump pointed out during the first debate with Joe Biden, There were a lot of open judge seats in the federal courts that he got to fill. Trump actually blamed Obama for leaving the seats empty. But of course, everyone knows that McConnell's Senate refused almost every appointee Obama put up for the court. Less particularly unpatriotic Republican controlled Senate has been shocking its responsibilities and spitting on the constitution for the last 10 years. This is particularly calling when the administration they serve is once again voted in by the minority of photos an the population of the states these senators represent represents a minority of Americans. Now, in a bid to control the highest court for decades to come they seat an appointee, on a completely partisan basis with the lowest Senate vote count in the last 100 years, from an unpopular president with only a week to go before the election. It should come as no surprise that the most unqualified judges sitting on the Supreme Court, Clarence Thomas and now Barrett were appointed by Republicans. Republicans are not interested and good jurisprudence. They are interested in appointing young ideologues who will tow the party line. experience on the bench tends to moderate extremist views and so we have a couple of judges who spent almost no time on the bench. And so it will come to pass, thanks to Trump's Virus (In all fairness to the Coronavirus, It's only Trump's virus in the United States where he allowed it to run rampant), and Trump's Great Recession, that just like after George W Bush’s Great Recession before it , the country will inevitably vote in Democrats to fix the mess that was made by a Republican administration voted in by the minority of voters.

You May Have Heard---An Election is Coming.

Sure, there are many reasons to fear this election because of the results in 2016. But let's actually consider that. Trump won with a minority of votes because of the quirkiness of the Electoral College. He could do it again, but let's understand that there is no silent majority voting for Trump. He's not more popular and he never had a majority. So, next to consider, does he have the support he had in the past? Well, while a lot of people who voted for him have made it clear that they’re going to vote for him again, there are a lot of people who say they voted for him and that they're not going to vote for him this time. A lot of Republicans are being very vocal and in-your-face about that! The real question about the election for Trump, is did he convert anyone over to his side since the election? What policies would have brought people to him? Would his impotent handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, allowing hundreds of thousands of Americans to die, be a particularly popular selling point to move over to the Trump camp? How about his embrace of dictators while insulting our allies? Do we think that would bring a lot of people over to the Trump camp? Does his support of those malevolent leaders even when they put bounties on our own soldiers lives, really help him? Or when those thugs continue to ignore international law and build up their nuclear capabilities while expressing their love for Trump---do we think that really sways undecideds? There is Trump's attempt to get rid of Obamacare and the guarantees for pre-existing conditions that come with it, without crafting any sort of workable health care plan to replace it. This also carries with it the promise of putting millions of working Americans back on the list of the uninsured. Do we think that's a good selling point? How about the way he took Obama's recovery and while extending it, also added $2 trillion to the national debt? And what did we actually get for that $2 trillion of additional debt? Such a weak economy that it collapsed as soon as the pandemic hit. And as the rest of the world weathered the storm, we didn't even mount a response as coherent much less comprehensive, as all the other developed countries…. And yet they were able to bounce back from their closures, while our economy is still damaged and losing jobs and our country is STILL dealing with a raging pandemic. (New record number of cases just this past Friday). So, what exactly would bring people to Trump who haven't already been there? And if he kept most of the people who voted for him without keeping all of them, that doesn't leave things looking too good for him in 2020. And if the disaster that was the Trump Administration brings out more voters then we saw last election, it would seem likely that most of that motivation will be for people to get rid of him. This is not 2016. The polling back then was actually all within the margin of error and in fact most of the things that said Hillary would win were simply based too much on the nation and not enough on the Electoral College. Now pollsters are taking that seriously into account. Everyone is watching the states though the mood of the nation is also relevant. There are a lot of reasons why Trump won but they had to do with a lot of factors that are not in play this time around. It looks like this time, rather than being swayed by Russian bots that told them that Hillary did bad things and then being complacent because the polls said she would win anyway, this time the public will come out and vote to repudiate failure and hatred. And if all goes as it should polls look as if the voters will take Trumps enablers in the Senate down with him. We are not in the clear in 2020. The Russians are still cheating for Trump. Republicans have kept the pandemic raging to help them suppress the vote they knew they weren't going to get because they handled the pandemic so poorly in the first place. But there are signs that the electorate will correct the disastrous mistakes of 2016 and elect a government that can begin to fix he mess Republicans have, once again, made of the country.

First Election Post: Sitting through this election season has been Hell.

So, Satan is kind of pissed that I’ve been contending with computer troubles, a very busy work schedule and lots of other obligations---including an amazing and historic rally tonight in Philadelphia with Jon Bon Jovi, Bruce Springsteen, Bill and Chelsea Clinton, President Obama and the First Lady and of course, Hillary Clinton. Because of all this I have been unable to blog our series of conversations regarding the election that begins later today. In the past, those conversations, “Voters are from Earth. Politicians are from Uranus” have garnered many thousands of readers and a multitude of positive comments and were quite popular when I was published on Yahoo. Now, in general, you don't want to upset the devil, so I had to promise Satan that I’d get it all posted, albeit after-the-fact, in the next week or so, but because of time constraints, tonight I would need to start at the end in this short post for tonight. He reluctantly agreed, by which I mean he didn't try to stop me with any gross or nasty devil stuff (though someone did leave a flaming bag of something on my porch). Anyway, so after ruminating over the upcoming election for many evenings at our favorite NYC hangout, here are my predictions. Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States, with the popular vote and at least 286 electoral college votes. The Democrats will get the senate, though possibly with just a tie plus the tie-breaking Vice President’s vote. And while Congress won’t likely change hands, it will lose enough GOP seats that with the other bruising losses, will require a rethinking of the current GOP. In the coming days we will examine why rethinking the current GOP was inevitable, and why Trump---win or lose, was destined for failure. VOTE---it’s a right and a responsibility! And enjoy this election---as Satan says; "it's gonna be a helluva ride!